Following the first presidential debate of 2016, between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, polling who won the debate has been somewhat misleading, and the people are suffering for it.
According to 10 snap polls conducted immediately following the debates, each by a different online media provider, there may be a huge difference in what the people and the pundits think. What makes them interesting is the online polls are very different from what many of pundit class want you to think about the debate.
Below is a list of ten sites which snap polled to see who people thought won the debate. By a large margin, in election terms anyway, Donald Trump was seen as the clear winner. The average margin of polling in Trump's favor was 62.9% to Hillary Clinton's 35.1%. Nine of 10 polls had Trump head by no less than 9.1%, and the 10th poll was a 50-50 tie. Clinton did not poll as winner in any of these polls.
Following the debate nearly all news outlets, on cable and broadcast TV, had so-called experts of the news, political pundits, and commentators declare Hillary the debate winner.
We can probably all agree that the polls above are not scientific, and probably have high margin for error. As a single poll we never accept the results as accurate with any degree of certainty. However, as a group, they do indicate that the convincing declarations of Clinton winning this debate can be, and should be, carefully reconsidered.
These sites are not all left or right leaning, so you can assume some level of confidence in the sum of the polls. Doesn't it make you a little bit curious why there is such a discrepancy between the political punditry and the citizens?
According to 10 snap polls conducted immediately following the debates, each by a different online media provider, there may be a huge difference in what the people and the pundits think. What makes them interesting is the online polls are very different from what many of pundit class want you to think about the debate.
Below is a list of ten sites which snap polled to see who people thought won the debate. By a large margin, in election terms anyway, Donald Trump was seen as the clear winner. The average margin of polling in Trump's favor was 62.9% to Hillary Clinton's 35.1%. Nine of 10 polls had Trump head by no less than 9.1%, and the 10th poll was a 50-50 tie. Clinton did not poll as winner in any of these polls.
| Poll |
Hillary
|
Trump
|
Margin
|
| CNBC |
38.0
|
62.0
|
24.0
|
| Washington Times |
24.0
|
70.0
|
46.0
|
| Drudge Report |
19.4
|
80.6
|
61.2
|
| Breitbart |
24.3
|
75.8
|
51.5
|
Variety
|
45.5
|
54.5
|
9.1
|
| NJ.com |
39.0
|
56.7
|
17.7
|
| The Hill |
36.0
|
59.0
|
23.0
|
| Fox 5 (NY) |
34.3
|
60.9
|
26.6
|
| CBS New York |
40.8
|
59.2
|
18.4
|
| TIME |
50.0
|
50.0
|
0.0
|
| Average |
35.1
|
62.9
|
27.7
|
Following the debate nearly all news outlets, on cable and broadcast TV, had so-called experts of the news, political pundits, and commentators declare Hillary the debate winner.
We can probably all agree that the polls above are not scientific, and probably have high margin for error. As a single poll we never accept the results as accurate with any degree of certainty. However, as a group, they do indicate that the convincing declarations of Clinton winning this debate can be, and should be, carefully reconsidered.
These sites are not all left or right leaning, so you can assume some level of confidence in the sum of the polls. Doesn't it make you a little bit curious why there is such a discrepancy between the political punditry and the citizens?
No comments:
Post a Comment