Black Swan Theory (Wiki)
I only became aware of this theory, which says there are events that take place without advance warning, but can have a large or extreme impact, and in hindsight, we should have seen it coming.
Many people are obsessing over Ebola, in turn fretting over who may have it, can I catch it, and what to do about all of that. The media lately is trying to convince Americans they are making mountains out of molehills. Are they?
Ebola was discovered and identified in Africa in the 1970's, where there have been repeated smaller outbreaks, relatively speaking. Now that world travel has lead to an unprecedented spread to the USA, many people are very worried, and rightly so. The disease has a high mortality rate, depending on a variety factors, such as general health of the patient at the time of infection. In African outbreaks the mortality rate is as high a 90%.
We are also being told that we can only contract the virus by exchanging bodily fluids with a symptomatic carrier. The incubation period is up to 21 days, after which you can be assured you have not been infected.
This all means we have a very low probability of catching the disease, but if we do, we have a high probability of dying from it. These attributes make Ebola a black swan of sorts.
Given what we do know, the question should be what policy is appropriate for dealing with potential infections. Should we quarantine people who have been near others we know to be infected? Under what circumstances should we quarantine people or not?
Friday, October 31, 2014
Friday, October 3, 2014
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Government Incompetence
Just in the recent past we have learned that the Secret Service has had multiple lapses in securing the life of the President. This is their highest priority mission.
On multiple occasions there have been individuals jump the White House fence and enter the compound without clearance. The second man actually entered the East Room of the mansion, where Presidents often hold ceremonies and deliver speeches.
In Atlanta, at the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and armed security guard from the CDC contracted security agency rode in the same elevator with the president. This was a violation of SS protection protocol.
The IRS routinely pays tax refunds to people who are not entitled to one. Recent estimates say this amounts to billions of dollars per year.
Medicare and Medicaid fraud annually is very high, and is routinely the subject of campaign promises of candidates for congress and the Oval Office.
TSA agents are often discovered as not stopping bombs that are actually tests to see how proficient they are at stopping bombs. At the same time they frequently are criticized for stopping small children, elderly, handicapped, and even military personnel for extra scrutiny at airports.
We all know about the lack of security provide State Department personnel in Benghazi, the IRS targeting of conservatives, the Department of Justice spying on members of the press, and the VA hospital scandal.
We also know that many "green" projects funded by the federal government have collapsed into bankruptcy.
High tax rates, excessive regulation, and arbitrary enforcement of laws all lead to a poor economy, while education declines.
Somebody tell me please, what does this government do to deserve our trust and support?
On multiple occasions there have been individuals jump the White House fence and enter the compound without clearance. The second man actually entered the East Room of the mansion, where Presidents often hold ceremonies and deliver speeches.
In Atlanta, at the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and armed security guard from the CDC contracted security agency rode in the same elevator with the president. This was a violation of SS protection protocol.
The IRS routinely pays tax refunds to people who are not entitled to one. Recent estimates say this amounts to billions of dollars per year.
Medicare and Medicaid fraud annually is very high, and is routinely the subject of campaign promises of candidates for congress and the Oval Office.
TSA agents are often discovered as not stopping bombs that are actually tests to see how proficient they are at stopping bombs. At the same time they frequently are criticized for stopping small children, elderly, handicapped, and even military personnel for extra scrutiny at airports.
We all know about the lack of security provide State Department personnel in Benghazi, the IRS targeting of conservatives, the Department of Justice spying on members of the press, and the VA hospital scandal.
We also know that many "green" projects funded by the federal government have collapsed into bankruptcy.
High tax rates, excessive regulation, and arbitrary enforcement of laws all lead to a poor economy, while education declines.
Somebody tell me please, what does this government do to deserve our trust and support?
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